Tsis ntev los no, lub qhov muag ntawm lub ntiaj teb tau raug kho ntawm qhov nqaim ntawd.
Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 28, 2026, thaum lub foob pob ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab cov neeg Ixayees tau poob rau Iranian av thiab Tehran cov foob pob hluav taws tau tho lub ntuj hmo ntuj hauv kev ua pauj, qhov kev txiav txim siab vwm tau muab tso rau ntawm lub rooj: Iran tshaj tawm tias nws yuav thaiv lub Strait ntawm Hormuz. Tsis txhob underestimate nqe lus no. Qhov no tsis zoo li kev teeb tsa lub chaw kuaj xyuas ntawm qhov nkag ntawm thaj chaw nyob kom kuaj xyuas cov lej noj qab haus huv; nws zoo li ncaj qha strangling caj dab ntawm lub ntiaj teb no lub zog kev lag luam. Lub Strait ntawm Hormuz nqaim npaum li cas? Ntawm nws qhov chaw nqaim tshaj plaws, koj tuaj yeem pom meej meej pom cov neeg ntawm lub nkoj ntawm sab nraud yog tias koj sawv ntawm no. Tab sis nws yog qhov tseeb ntawm txoj kev dej no uas ua rau lub xub pwg ib -feem peb ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov roj hauv dej hiav txwv thiab ib qho - tsib ntawm cov dej liquefied natural gas thauj mus los.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv raw khoom siv rau kev lag luam cable, tooj liab, txhuas, thiab cov khoom siab -molecular. Cia peb pib nrog tooj liab. Nws muaj tus cwj pwm nyiaj txiag muaj zog, thiab cov neeg muaj nyiaj seem yog txhua tus saib xyuas nws. Thaum qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no tshwm sim, thawj qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm cov nyiaj yog mus nrhiav chaw nkaum hauv kub, thiab lawv kuj rub tau tooj liab raws li txoj kev. Tsuas yog tom qab lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav hauv Suav teb, cov tooj liab hauv cov tsev khaws khoom tau muab tso rau hauv zoo li cov roob me.
Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tshaj plaws yog txaus ntshai - cov khoom lag luam kev sib raug zoo tam sim ntawd tau nce los ntawm 165,000 tons! Cov chaw tsim khoom uas tsim cov cables tseem tsis tau rov ua haujlwm tag nrho, thiab cov tshuab tseem tsis tau pib tag nrho. Tam sim no cia peb saib ntawm aluminium. Cov neeg ua si loj hauv Middle East, xws li Iran, United Arab Emirates, thiab Saudi Arabia, muaj kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm electrolytic aluminium muaj peev xwm ntau dua 7 lab tons! Tshwj xeeb yog Iran nws tus kheej, nws tuaj yeem tsim tau ze li ntawm 800,000 tons hauv ib xyoos. Tab sis cov teb chaws no muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg: cov khoom siv raw bauxite rau aluminium smelting yuav tsum tau tuaj, thiab cov khoom siv txhuas tiav yuav tsum tau xa tawm. Yog tias lub Strait of Hormuz raug thaiv tiag tiag, nws txhais tau hais tias cov khoom siv raw tsis tuaj yeem nkag mus thiab cov khoom tiav tsis tuaj yeem tawm mus, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom yuav tuag tes tuag taw ntawm qhov chaw.
Dab tsi yog qhov tuag taus? Cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm electrolytic aluminium hauv cov tsev khaws khoom tsuas yog txaus rau lub ntiaj teb kom haus rau 5.6 hnub! 5.6 hnub txhais li cas? Nws zoo li koj tab tom tshaib plab thiab tsis paub tias koj noj mov tom ntej tuaj qhov twg. Qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws thiab ncaj qha yuav yog ntawm cov khoom siv molecular siab, uas yog, cov khoom yas peb feem ntau hu ua PP (polypropylene) thiab PE (polyethylene). Thawj tshuab yog nyob ntawm tus nqi. Iran yog tus tsim cov roj tseem ceeb. Thaum tsov rog pib, cov nqi roj yuav nce siab. Cov khoom siv raw rau kev ua cov yas yog naphtha, uas yog refined los ntawm cov roj. Muaj ib lo lus hais hauv kev lag luam uas ncaj nraim: rau txhua $ 10 nce ntawm cov nqi roj, tus nqi ntawm cov yas yuav nce ntau pua yuan ib tuj. Qhov no yog ib qho nyuaj uas tsis tuaj yeem zam tau.
Lub tshuab thib ob yog nyob rau ntawm qhov khoom. Tej zaum koj yuav tsis paub tias Iran yog tus xa khoom tseem ceeb ntawm cov yas rau Tuam Tshoj. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau siab -density polyethylene (LDPE), cov khoom siv rau cov hnab yas thiab lub Hoobkas wrapping films, tus nqi uas peb imported los ntawm Iran xyoo tas los suav rau 14% ntawm peb tag nrho cov imports! Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm General Administration of Customs yog xim dub thiab dawb. Caixin Futures tseem ceeb rau peb tias 9% feem ntawm polyethylene ntshuam yuav yeej txhawb cov nqi lag luam nyob rau lub sijhawm luv.
Qhov thib peb tshuab yog ntawm freight thiab ua siab loj. Leej twg yuav twv xa nkoj mus rau thaj tsam ua tsov rog tam sim no? Kev tuav pov hwm tus nqi yuav nce ntau zaus, thiab cov nqi thauj khoom yuav ua raws li kev cai, txhua yam yuav suav nrog tus nqi tsaws. Qhov no yog hu ua pheej hmoo premium.
Saib ntawm qhov xwm txheej los ntawm qhov kev xav ntev dua -, qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no yuav tsis yog ib qho kev hla dhau; nws tuaj yeem hloov pauv cov cai tswj nqi rau cov khoom lag luam no mus tas li. Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm tooj liab, txawm hais tias nws yog tam sim no hnyav los ntawm cov khoom muag, qhov xwm txheej zoo li txawv kiag li thaum saib ntau xyoo. Lub ntiaj teb cov pob zeb tooj liab tau ploj mus, thiab cov khoom siv tau nce mus txog qhov kawg, tej zaum txawm tias nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob tsis zoo. Tab sis li cas txog kev thov? Kev tsim kho ntawm AI suav cov chaw thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov phiaj xwm hluav taws xob yog txhua tus neeg siv khoom loj ntawm tooj liab. JPMorgan Chase thiab Guojin Securities kwv yees tias qhov tsis txaus tooj liab tsuas yog nce ntxiv rau xyoo tom ntej. Qhov no zoo li lub pas dej uas tab tom yuav qhuav, nrog cov dej ntws tsawg zuj zus thaum cov thoob uas siv los sau cov dej tau loj thiab loj dua.
Lub logic tom qab aluminium yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj ntawm kev npaj kev lag luam. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev hluav taws xob aluminium tau ntev tau capped, nrog lub qab nthab uas tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem dhau. Kev ua haujlwm txawv teb chaws tshiab kuj tseem poob qab. Tab sis li cas txog kev thov? Photovoltaic thav duab thiab lub zog tshiab tsheb txhua tus xav tau txhuas. Ib tug phooj ywg los ntawm Industrial Securities ncaj qha siv lo lus "tus nqi rov qab," txhais tau hais tias txhuas tsis tuaj yeem suav tias yog cov hlau zoo tib yam; nws muaj "supply dividend."
Thaum kawg, cov pa luam yeeb ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog hauv Middle East tsuas yog qhia qhov tseeb hnyav hauv kev tshaj tawm -globalization era: geopolitics tsis yog qhov kev xaiv hloov pauv hauv cov qauv kev lag luam; nws tau sib sib zog nqus embedded nws tus kheej nyob rau hauv tus nqi noob ntawm txhua yam khoom. Cov nthwv dej hauv Strait ntawm Hormuz thaum kawg yuav dhau los ua ripples hauv peb lub neej, tab sis rau qee tus, nws yuav yog huab cua sov thaum lawv pom. Qhov xwm txheej hloov sai heev. Yog tias cov nqi roj ruaj khov rau yav tom ntej, qhov kev cuam tshuam no yuav dhau mus. Tab sis nyob rau niaj hnub no kev ruaj ntseg- thawj lub ntiaj teb no, peb txhua tus yuav tsum tau kawm kom hloov thiab ua lag luam nyob rau hauv lub suab ntawm rab phom.
